Dundalk 2-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 15 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk at Oriel Park this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Dundalk's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 64% versus Sligo Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 47% | Sligo Rovers 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.13 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.152 / defence 0.764 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.230 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.136. Sligo Rovers have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Dundalk games / 45 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 34% | Draw 34% | Sligo Rovers 31%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Sligo Rovers 3.23. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Sligo Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 34% | Draw 34% | Sligo Rovers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Dundalk 1.13 / Sligo Rovers 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.152 / def 0.764 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.230 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sligo Rovers xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 2 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 34% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.23x) against Dundalk's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
34%
2.91
34%
2.93
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.19
1.07
Sligo Rovers xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.07 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 13W 9D 14L from 36 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 11L across 36 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Dundalk against 1.58 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 9W 2D 7L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.19 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.61 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 67%, Sligo Rovers 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 33% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 33%; Sligo Rovers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dundalk's recent matches and 39% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dundalk's recent games and 33% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Sligo Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Sligo Rovers 2-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.13 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.07 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.15 / defence 0.76 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 34% | Draw 34% | Sligo Rovers 31%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Sligo Rovers 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.33 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.