Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dundalk face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Dundalk 3W, Shamrock Rovers 5W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 10 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 76% and Shamrock Rovers 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 62% | Shamrock Rovers 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.17 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.904 / defence 1.200 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.069 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.306. Data: 29 Dundalk games / 64 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 23% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 46%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Shamrock Rovers 2.17. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 90% | Shamrock Rovers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 23% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Dundalk 1.17 / Shamrock Rovers 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.904 / def 1.200 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.069 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Shamrock Rovers xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Oriel Park.
Where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 23% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (10 meetings): Dundalk 3W | Draws 2 | Shamrock Rovers 5W.
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.90) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.07x) against Dundalk's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 29/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
23%
4.29
31%
3.23
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.85
1.68
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
22.92
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.68 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 10W 10D 9L from 29 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 6L across 29 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 6W 3D 5L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 6W 5D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 16W 7D 6L in their last 29 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.50 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 71%, Shamrock Rovers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 43% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 36%; Shamrock Rovers in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Dundalk's games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dundalk's recent games and 43% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.