Drogheda United 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Shelbourne meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 July 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Drogheda United have posted 3W 4D 3L at Weavers Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Drogheda United, 0 for Shelbourne and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 57% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 57% | Shelbourne 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.87 xG and Shelbourne 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.038 / defence 1.303 | Shelbourne attack 1.131 / defence 0.669. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 0.952. Shelbourne's defence strength of 0.669 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Drogheda United games / 59 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 23% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 49%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Shelbourne 2.04. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 70% | Shelbourne 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Jul 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 23% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Drogheda United 0.87 / Shelbourne 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.038 / def 1.303 | Shelbourne attack 1.131 / def 0.669 | league avg home 1.251 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Shelbourne xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Shelbourne kick off?
Drogheda United vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 4 July 2024 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Drogheda United 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Drogheda United vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Shelbourne part of?
Drogheda United vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 23% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Drogheda United and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Shelbourne?
Record (1 meetings): Drogheda United 0W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 0W.
What form are Drogheda United and Shelbourne in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 1.04x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.13x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
23%
4.30
27%
3.67
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.27
1.40
Shelbourne xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.50
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 14.5 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.40 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Drogheda United come into this having played 58 games, going 13W 18D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.81 PPG from 58 outings (28W 21D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Drogheda United's home form reads 8W 10D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.71 points per game from 28 outings (12W 12D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Drogheda United are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.22 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 13W 18D 27L in their last 58 games (0.98 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 28W 21D 9L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.21 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Drogheda United
5
Draws
2
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 3, Shelbourne have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Drogheda United 2-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Shelbourne?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 57%, Shelbourne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Drogheda United) and 29% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 50%; Drogheda United have failed to score in 36% of games; Shelbourne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 39% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Drogheda United's recent games and 29% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Drogheda United and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 23, as Drogheda United and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.87 xG and Shelbourne 1.40 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against Shelbourne attack 1.13 / defence 0.67, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 23% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 49%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 57%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.