Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Derry City's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Brandywell Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Brandywell Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.50 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Derry City, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 58% versus St Patrick's Athl. 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 46% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.12 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.081 / defence 0.946 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.080 / defence 0.687. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.293. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.687 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 Derry City games / 69 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 28% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 28% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Derry City 1.12 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.081 / def 0.946 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.080 / def 0.687 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.32
St Patrick's Athl. xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 28% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (9 meetings): Derry City 3W | Draws 4 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
28%
3.56
34%
2.93
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.44
1.32
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Derry City and 1.32 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derry City's recent record stands at 27W 23D 19L from 69 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 18L across 69 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.51 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 16W 12D 6L from 34 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 12W 10D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derry City are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.38 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 27W 23D 19L in their last 69 games (1.51 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 18L in their last 69 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Derry City's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.76 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Derry City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
4
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 59%, St Patrick's Athl. 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 35% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 41%; St Patrick's Athl. in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Derry City's recent matches and 35% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 35% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.12 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.08 / defence 0.69, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 28% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 46%, St Patrick's Athl. 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.51 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.