Derry City 1-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derry City (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shelbourne have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Derry City register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shelbourne in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derry City lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Shelbourne 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.51 xG and Shelbourne 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.209 / defence 1.117 | Shelbourne attack 1.161 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.098. Data: 41 Derry City games / 41 Shelbourne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 35%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Shelbourne 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 70% | Shelbourne 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Derry City 1.51 / Shelbourne 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.209 / def 1.117 | Shelbourne attack 1.161 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Derry City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Shelbourne xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shelbourne kick off?
Derry City vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 March 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Derry City 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Derry City vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shelbourne part of?
Derry City vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 39% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Derry City and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
Record (7 meetings): Derry City 2W | Draws 3 | Shelbourne 2W.
What form are Derry City and Shelbourne in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.21) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.16x) against Derry City's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.84
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.94
1.42
Shelbourne xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Derry City and 1.42 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derry City come into this having played 72 games, going 32W 22D 18L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.69 PPG from 72 outings (32W 26D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Derry City against 1.69 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derry City's home form reads 18W 12D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.64 points per game from 36 outings (15W 14D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Derry City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shelbourne away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Derry City
4
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 3, Shelbourne have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 64%, Shelbourne 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 31% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shelbourne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Derry City's games and 53% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 31% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Derry City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Derry City 1-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.51 xG and Shelbourne 1.42 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.21 / defence 1.12 against Shelbourne attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 39% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 35%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Shelbourne 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.64 PPG, Shelbourne 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.