Derry City 1-1 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Longford Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 10 as Derry City welcome Longford Town to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 May 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derry City, 1 for Longford Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2021, ended 0–2 with Longford Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.10 xG and Longford Town 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.896 / defence 1.305 | Longford Town attack 0.678 / defence 1.569. League average goals — home 0.781 / away 1.202. Longford Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.569 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Derry City games / 9 Longford Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 34% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 33%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Longford Town 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 34% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Derry City 1.10 / Longford Town 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.896 / def 1.305 | Longford Town attack 0.678 / def 1.569 | league avg home 0.781 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Derry City (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Longford Town xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Longford Town kick off?
Derry City vs Longford Town kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 7 May 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Longford Town?
Derry City 1 - 1 Longford Town.
Where is Derry City vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Longford Town part of?
Derry City vs Longford Town is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 34% chance of winning, Longford Town a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derry City and Longford Town will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Longford Town?
Record (1 meetings): Derry City 0W | Draws 0 | Longford Town 1W.
What form are Derry City and Longford Town in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derry City's attack at 0.90x the league average against Longford Town's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
34%
2.91
33%
3.04
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.16
1.06
Longford Town xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Derry City and 1.06 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derry City
1
Draws
1
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Longford Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Derry City have won 2, Longford Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Longford Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2021, when Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Longford Town?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Derry City and Longford Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Derry City and Longford Town drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.10 xG and Longford Town 1.06 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.90 / defence 1.30 against Longford Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.57, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 34% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 33%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.