Bohemians 3-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians face Sligo Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 3W 4D 3L at Dalymount Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bohemians. A 1.20 PPG lead over Sligo Rovers (1.60 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Bohemians, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Sligo Rovers — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Bohemians winning.
The historical record gives Bohemians a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 52% versus Sligo Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 52% | Sligo Rovers 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.98 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.200 / defence 1.122 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.747 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.254. Data: 64 Bohemians games / 64 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 17%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Sligo Rovers 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 90% | Sligo Rovers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1.98 / Sligo Rovers 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.200 / def 1.122 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.747 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sligo Rovers xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 3 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 56% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 5W | Draws 2 | Sligo Rovers 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.20) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.75x) against Bohemians's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.64
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.04
1.05
Sligo Rovers xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
2%
43.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.05 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 29W 14D 21L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 16W 16D 32L from 64 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.66 PPG from 32 outings (15W 8D 9L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 8W 5D 19L from 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.02 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 29W 14D 21L in their last 64 games (1.58 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 16D 32L in their last 64 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Bohemians's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.66 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Bohemians 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 56%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bohemians) and 53% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bohemians's recent games and 53% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 3-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.98 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.05 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 56% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 17%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 52%, Sligo Rovers 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.