Bohemians 3-4 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 12 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 7W 1D 2L at Dalymount Park — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Derry City (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bohemians, 1.80 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 46% versus Derry City 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 38% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.30 xG and Derry City 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.060 / defence 0.819 | Derry City attack 0.963 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 0.991. Data: 65 Bohemians games / 65 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 48% | Draw 30% | Derry City 22%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 4.55. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 30% | Derry City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 48% | Draw 30% | Derry City 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Bohemians 1.30 / Derry City 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.060 / def 0.819 | Derry City attack 0.963 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.330 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Derry City xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 September 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 3 - 4 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 48% chance of winning, Derry City a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 2 | Derry City 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Derry City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.96x) against Bohemians's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
48%
2.06
30%
3.38
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.08
0.78
Derry City xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.78 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 24W 17D 24L from 65 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 27W 20D 18L across 65 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Bohemians against 1.55 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 13W 7D 12L from 32 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 11W 9D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.35 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 24W 17D 24L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while Derry City have gone 27W 20D 18L in their last 65 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Bohemians's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.44 PPG; Derry City away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
3
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Derry City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Bohemians 5-3 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derry City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 47%, Derry City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bohemians) and 34% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 41%; Derry City in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bohemians's recent matches and 38% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bohemians's recent games and 34% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Derry City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Derry City in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Bohemians 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Bohemians 3-4 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.30 xG and Derry City 0.78 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 0.78 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against Derry City attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 48% | Draw 30% | Derry City 22%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Derry City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.37 PPG, Derry City 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.