Bohemians 2-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 6W 3D 1L at Dalymount Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Derry City (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.22 xG and Derry City 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.091 / defence 1.108 | Derry City attack 1.024 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.167. Data: 40 Bohemians games / 41 Derry City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 34% | Draw 27% | Derry City 39%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 60% | Derry City 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 34% | Draw 27% | Derry City 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1.22 / Derry City 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.091 / def 1.108 | Derry City attack 1.024 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Derry City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Derry City xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 2 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 34% chance of winning, Derry City a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.02x) against Bohemians's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (40/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.75
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.54
1.32
Derry City xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.32 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 28W 20D 24L from 72 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 36W 23D 13L across 72 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians against 1.82 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 17W 9D 10L from 36 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 19W 10D 7L across 36 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.53 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 games (1.44 PPG), while Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.67 PPG; Derry City away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Derry City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, Derry City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bohemians) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Bohemians's recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Derry City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Derry City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Derry City 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.22 xG and Derry City 1.32 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Derry City attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 34% | Draw 27% | Derry City 39%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, Derry City 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.