Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Volos NFC face Lamia.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Volos NFC and Lamia meet at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 8). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Volos NFC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Volos NFC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Lamia have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Lamia away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Volos NFC edge it 3 wins to 1, with 5 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2025, ended Volos NFC 3–1 Lamia — a Volos NFC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 50% versus Lamia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 53% | Lamia 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.821 / defence 1.182 | Lamia attack 0.702 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Lamia's defence rating of 1.384 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Lamia's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 52 games and Lamia's last 52.

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 50% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.02 | Draw 3.74 | Lamia 4.22. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 40% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 20% (last 10 away games).

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