PAS Giannina 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Zosimades plays host to PAS Giannina versus OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 27 September 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAS Giannina have collected 2.33 PPG across 3 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 0L. Last five: W W D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 3 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward PAS Giannina. A 1.33 PPG lead over OFI (2.33 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
PAS Giannina half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PAS Giannina 0% | OFI 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 0% | OFI 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.97 xG and OFI 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.925 / defence 1.045 | OFI attack 0.746 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 0.847. Data: 3 PAS Giannina games / 3 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 42% | Draw 34% | OFI 24%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | OFI 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — OFI's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 0% | OFI 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 42% | Draw 34% | OFI 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG PAS Giannina 0.97 / OFI 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.925 / def 1.045 | OFI attack 0.746 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.043 / away 0.847 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.66
OFI xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs OFI kick off?
PAS Giannina vs OFI kicked off at 15:15 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs OFI?
PAS Giannina 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is PAS Giannina vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs OFI part of?
PAS Giannina vs OFI is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 42% chance of winning, OFI a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both PAS Giannina and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAS Giannina and OFI in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W-D. OFI (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 0.93x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.75x) against PAS Giannina's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
42%
2.40
34%
2.92
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
1.63
0.66
OFI xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.66 for OFI, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAS Giannina come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAS Giannina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PAS Giannina have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; OFI in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and OFI in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while OFI have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have PAS Giannina or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, OFI in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and OFI?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when OFI 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
OFI see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (PAS Giannina) and 33% (OFI) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PAS Giannina and 33% for OFI.
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; OFI in 67%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 33% of games; OFI in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 33% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 33% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
PAS Giannina and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina and OFI finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.97 xG and OFI 0.66 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against OFI attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 42% | Draw 34% | OFI 24%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 0%, OFI 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAS Giannina arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PAS Giannina shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.