PAS Giannina 2-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Levadiakos at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAS Giannina have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Zosimades — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Zosimades. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have recorded 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.33 PPG).
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 0.50 PPG, Levadiakos 0.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PAS Giannina 33% | Levadiakos 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 0% | Levadiakos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.35 xG and Levadiakos 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.004 / defence 1.013 | Levadiakos attack 0.612 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 0.885. Data: 29 PAS Giannina games / 3 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 56% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 14%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 1.79 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 7.14. The model has a clear lean to PAS Giannina (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | Levadiakos 0% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 56% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 32% | xG PAS Giannina 1.35 / Levadiakos 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.004 / def 1.013 | Levadiakos attack 0.612 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.171 / away 0.885 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Levadiakos xG
32%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos?
PAS Giannina 2 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 56% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both PAS Giannina and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAS Giannina and Levadiakos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (1.00) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 2-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
56%
1.79
30%
3.33
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
1.90
0.55
Levadiakos xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
4%
27.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.2 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.55 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, PAS Giannina have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 0.33 PPG, Levadiakos on 0.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have PAS Giannina or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Levadiakos?
From 3 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Levadiakos 3-3 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Levadiakos?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAS Giannina 33% BTTS, Levadiakos 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PAS Giannina and 33% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 33%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 67% of games; Levadiakos in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 33% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Levadiakos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAS Giannina edge out Levadiakos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Levadiakos 2-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.35 xG and Levadiakos 0.55 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Levadiakos attack 0.61 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 56% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 14%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 0%, Levadiakos 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 0.33 PPG, Levadiakos 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.