PAS Giannina 3-0 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAS Giannina face Kifisia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAS Giannina and Kifisia meet at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1 (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
PAS Giannina's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAS Giannina's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.52 xG and Kifisia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.921 / defence 0.995 | Kifisia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.140. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 26 games and Kifisia's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 22%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.08 | Draw 3.31 | Kifisia 4.60. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (PAS Giannina 26 games, Kifisia 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG PAS Giannina 1.52 / Kifisia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.921 / def 0.995 | Kifisia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Kifisia xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAS Giannina vs Kifisia FAQs
What time does PAS Giannina vs Kifisia kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Kifisia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
PAS Giannina 3 - 0 Kifisia.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Kifisia part of?
PAS Giannina vs Kifisia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 48% chance of winning, Kifisia a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAS Giannina and Kifisia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAS Giannina vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.92) and Kifisia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (0.85x) against PAS Giannina's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from PAS Giannina's last 26 games and Kifisia's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.31
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.49
0.96
Kifisia xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
21.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAS Giannina vs Kifisia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.96 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Pre-Season
Kifisia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
PAS Giannina (Home) vs Kifisia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAS Giannina
Pre-Season
Kifisia
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between PAS Giannina and Kifisia, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAS Giannina won PAS Giannina 3-0 Kifisia on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
0
Draws
1
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ PAS Giannina vs Kifisia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Kifisia?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, PAS Giannina have won 2, Kifisia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Kifisia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Kifisia 2-3 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Kifisia?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant PAS Giannina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Kifisia 3-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.52 xG and Kifisia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAS Giannina beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kifisia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Kifisia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 22%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.