PAOK 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as PAOK take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 5 February 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.60 for PAOK, 2.20 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 45% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 43% | Olympiakos Piraeus 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.160 / defence 0.923 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.331 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.003. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 PAOK games / 46 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 29% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 35%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 29% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG PAOK 1.10 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.160 / def 0.923 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.331 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 29% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.33x) against PAOK's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.46
36%
2.80
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.33
1.23
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for PAOK and 1.23 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 31W 13D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 37W 14D 5L from 56 games, 2.23 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for PAOK against 2.23 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.04 PPG from 28 outings (17W 6D 5L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 17W 8D 3L from 28 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.73 scored and 0.68 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 31W 13D 12L in their last 56 games (1.89 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 37W 14D 5L in their last 56 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.04 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.11 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 46%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PAOK) and 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PAOK's recent matches and 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of PAOK's recent games and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAOK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 21, as PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.23 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAOK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.33 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 29% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 43%, Olympiakos Piraeus 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.89 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.