PAOK 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 2). Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
PAOK's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for PAOK, 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2025, ended PAOK 1–2 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 57% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 68% | Olympiakos Piraeus 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.399 / defence 0.948 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.293 / defence 0.640. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.093. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.399 — their 1.14 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.640, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling PAOK's projected output down. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack rating of 1.293, which lifts their away xG to 1.34. Data: built from PAOK's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52.
Result probabilities: PAOK 32% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 3.16 | Draw 3.71 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: PAOK 50% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 32% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG PAOK 1.14 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.399 / def 0.948 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.293 / def 0.640 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 2 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 2) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 32% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.29x) against PAOK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.71
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.48
1.34
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for PAOK and 1.34 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 40W 9D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 42W 12D 9L from 63 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for PAOK against 2.19 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.06 PPG from their last 31 home games (20W 4D 7L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 18W 7D 6L from their last 31 away games — 1.97 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.03 scored and 0.83 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAOK (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 40W 9D 14L in their last 63 games (2.05 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 42W 12D 9L in their last 63 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.06 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.97 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 45%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (PAOK) and 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of PAOK's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of PAOK's recent games and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of PAOK's recent matches and 68% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.29 / defence 0.64, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 32% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 68%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.05 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.