PAOK 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Toumbas this season.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in PAOK's favour (2.60 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 2–1 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 56% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 68% | Aris Thessalonikis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.37 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.099 / defence 0.829 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.002 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.216. Data: 31 PAOK games / 31 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 41% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 41% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG PAOK 1.37 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.099 / def 0.829 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.002 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: PAOK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Aris Thessalonikis xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK 0 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 41% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (6 meetings): PAOK 3W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.10x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.00x) against PAOK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
41%
2.42
35%
2.87
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.38
1.01
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for PAOK and 1.01 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 29W 6D 6L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 18W 9D 14L from 41 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.43 PPG from 21 outings (16W 3D 2L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.41 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 29W 6D 6L in their last 41 games (2.27 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 18W 9D 14L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAOK's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.43 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.33 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 43%, Aris Thessalonikis 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (PAOK) and 33% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 43%; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of PAOK's recent matches and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of PAOK's recent games and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat PAOK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAOK 0-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.37 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAOK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 41% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 68%, Aris Thessalonikis 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.