Panserraikos 3-2 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panserraikos face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Panserraikos welcome PAS Giannina to Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1 (matchday 6). Kick-off is Thursday 28 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 5 games, Panserraikos have gone 1W 3D 1L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAS Giannina — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Panserraikos) versus 1.60 (PAS Giannina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Panserraikos's games and 60% of PAS Giannina's (from Panserraikos's last 5 games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Panserraikos trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games.
PAS Giannina trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 60% versus PAS Giannina 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panserraikos 20% | PAS Giannina 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.29 xG and PAS Giannina 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.863 / defence 0.995 | PAS Giannina attack 0.964 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.128. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 5 games and PAS Giannina's last 31.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 37% | Draw 35% | PAS Giannina 27%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.68 | Draw 2.82 | PAS Giannina 3.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panserraikos are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 60% (last 5 games) | PAS Giannina 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Thursday 28 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 37% | Draw 35% | PAS Giannina 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Panserraikos 1.29 / PAS Giannina 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.863 / def 0.995 | PAS Giannina attack 0.964 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
PAS Giannina xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Panserraikos 3 - 2 PAS Giannina.
Where is Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 37% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Panserraikos and PAS Giannina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Panserraikos's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 5 games and PAS Giannina's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
37%
2.68
35%
2.82
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.37
1.08
PAS Giannina xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.08 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panserraikos come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 3D 1L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 1.20 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Panserraikos are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panserraikos have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAS Giannina in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Early Season
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Panserraikos (Home) vs PAS Giannina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Early Season
PAS Giannina
Early Season
❓ Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Panserraikos or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Panserraikos have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Panserraikos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Panserraikos
0
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and PAS Giannina?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 3, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2024: Panserraikos 2-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and PAS Giannina?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 60%, PAS Giannina 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Panserraikos) and 60% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina in 40%; PAS Giannina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and PAS Giannina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 40% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panserraikos and PAS Giannina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Panserraikos's recent games and 60% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and PAS Giannina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 60% of PAS Giannina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panserraikos edge out PAS Giannina 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat PAS Giannina 3-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.29 xG and PAS Giannina 1.08 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against PAS Giannina attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 5/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 37% | Draw 35% | PAS Giannina 27%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 20%, PAS Giannina 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.20 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. PAS Giannina scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.