Panetolikos 1-2 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panetolikos Stadium plays host to Panetolikos versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 2W 3D 5L at Panetolikos Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Asteras Tripolis arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Panetolikos, 3 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 40% versus Asteras Tripolis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 34% | Asteras Tripolis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.37 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.889 / defence 1.192 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.798 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 26%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Asteras Tripolis 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Asteras Tripolis (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 60% | Asteras Tripolis 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 10 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Panetolikos 1.37 / Asteras Tripolis 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.889 / def 1.192 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.798 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Asteras Tripolis xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Group - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 43% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (8 meetings): Panetolikos 2W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 3W.
What form are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.80x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.19
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.38
1.01
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.01 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos come into this having played 67 games, going 21W 17D 29L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.15 PPG from 67 outings (20W 17D 30L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.15 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Panetolikos's home form reads 10W 5D 18L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.94 points per game from 33 outings (7W 10D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 21W 17D 29L in their last 67 games (1.19 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 20W 17D 30L in their last 67 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.06 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
3
Draws
4
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 39%, Asteras Tripolis 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Panetolikos) and 39% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 30%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 42% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 48% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Panetolikos's recent games and 39% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.37 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 43% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 26%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 34%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.19 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.