Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Panetolikos Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Panetolikos Stadium, Panetolikos have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Panetolikos, 1.00 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Aris Thessalonikis, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 3 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Panetolikos winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aris Thessalonikis have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 34% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.10 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.837 / defence 1.499 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.845 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.072. Data: 44 Panetolikos games / 44 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 30% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 30% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Panetolikos 1.10 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.837 / def 1.499 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.845 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Aris Thessalonikis xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 30% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (9 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 6W.
What form are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.84x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
30%
3.29
27%
3.71
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.46
1.36
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.36 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 11D 23L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.56 PPG from 50 outings (21W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.56 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Panetolikos's home form reads 8W 2D 15L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.16 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 15D 14L in their last 50 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.04 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
0
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 32%, Aris Thessalonikis 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Panetolikos) and 40% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 56% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Panetolikos's recent games and 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.10 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.36 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.84 / defence 1.50 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 30% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 32%, Aris Thessalonikis 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.18 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.