Panathinaikos 3-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panathinaikos face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panserraikos make the trip to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis to face Panathinaikos in Super League 1 (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Panathinaikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panserraikos's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Panserraikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.20 for Panserraikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Panathinaikos, 0 for Panserraikos and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2024, ended Panathinaikos 3–0 Panserraikos — a Panathinaikos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Panserraikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 51% versus Panserraikos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 65% | Panserraikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.54 xG and Panserraikos 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 0.931 / defence 0.818 | Panserraikos attack 0.950 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.267. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.395 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panathinaikos's projected output up. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 30 games and Panserraikos's last 30.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 47% | Draw 33% | Panserraikos 21%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.15 | Draw 3.04 | Panserraikos 4.87. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 60% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 47% | Draw 33% | Panserraikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Panathinaikos 1.54 / Panserraikos 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 0.931 / def 0.818 | Panserraikos attack 0.950 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Panserraikos xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos?
Panathinaikos 3 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos part of?
Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 47% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Panathinaikos and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (0.93) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.95x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 30 games and Panserraikos's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
47%
2.15
33%
3.04
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.53
0.99
Panserraikos xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
4%
22.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.99 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 19W 9D 9L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Panserraikos's form line: 9W 12D 16L from 37 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panserraikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.06 PPG from their last 18 home games (11W 4D 3L).
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 2W 4D 12L from their last 18 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.11 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
Panathinaikos (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
❓ Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Panserraikos away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.06 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Panathinaikos and Panserraikos, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 11 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Panathinaikos have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won Panathinaikos 5-0 Panserraikos on 29 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Panserraikos?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2026: Panathinaikos 3-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Panserraikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 44%, Panserraikos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Panathinaikos) and 44% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Panserraikos in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and Panserraikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 33% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panathinaikos and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 44% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 72% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Panserraikos 3-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.54 xG and Panserraikos 0.99 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Panserraikos attack 0.95 / defence 1.40, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 47% | Draw 33% | Panserraikos 21%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 65%, Panserraikos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Panserraikos's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.