Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panathinaikos host OFI at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panathinaikos 2.00 PPG, OFI 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Panathinaikos hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for OFI, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Panathinaikos and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
OFI in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 52% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 44% | OFI 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 2.34 xG and OFI 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.262 / defence 0.888 | OFI attack 1.040 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.093. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Panathinaikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Panathinaikos games / 48 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 67% | Draw 19% | OFI 15%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | OFI 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 60% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 67% | Draw 19% | OFI 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG Panathinaikos 2.34 / OFI 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.262 / def 0.888 | OFI attack 1.040 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.01
OFI xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs OFI kick off?
Panathinaikos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Panathinaikos 4 - 1 OFI.
Where is Panathinaikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs OFI part of?
Panathinaikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 67% chance of winning, OFI a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Panathinaikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Record (9 meetings): Panathinaikos 5W | Draws 3 | OFI 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. OFI (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.26) and OFI's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.40
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
3.35
1.01
OFI xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
10%
10.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
1%
71.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.01 for OFI, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 28W 14D 12L from 54 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 26L across 54 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 18W 6D 2L from 26 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.30 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 28W 14D 12L in their last 54 games (1.81 PPG), while OFI have gone 19W 9D 26L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or OFI away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.31 PPG; OFI away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, OFI in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 6, OFI have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 58%, OFI 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Panathinaikos) and 65% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; OFI in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Panathinaikos's matches and 65% of OFI's.
Do Panathinaikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, OFI in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panathinaikos run riot with a 4-1 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat OFI 4-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 2.34 xG and OFI 1.01 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.26 / defence 0.89 against OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.31, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 67% | Draw 19% | OFI 15%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 44%, OFI 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.