Panathinaikos 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panathinaikos face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Panathinaikos welcome Lamia to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Panathinaikos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lamia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Panathinaikos have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 8 past contests while Lamia have managed just 0 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 5–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Panathinaikos and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Panathinaikos trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 46% versus Lamia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 59% | Lamia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.42 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 0.947 / defence 0.786 | Lamia attack 1.024 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.226. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Panathinaikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Panathinaikos games / 36 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 28% | Lamia 26%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Lamia 3.85. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Panathinaikos 60% | Lamia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 28% | Lamia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Panathinaikos 1.42 / Lamia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 0.947 / def 0.786 | Lamia attack 1.024 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lamia xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Panathinaikos 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Lamia part of?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 46% chance of winning, Lamia a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Panathinaikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Record (8 meetings): Panathinaikos 7W | Draws 1 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Lamia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.54
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.40
0.99
Lamia xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.99 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 25W 11D 10L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 10W 12D 24L from 46 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 7D 12L from 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.11 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia in 61%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 25W 11D 10L in their last 46 games (1.87 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 12D 24L in their last 46 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Lamia away?
Panathinaikos's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 1.96 PPG; Lamia away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lamia in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 8, Lamia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 48%, Lamia 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Panathinaikos and 70% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lamia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Panathinaikos's games and 65% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panathinaikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Panathinaikos's matches and 70% of Lamia's.
Do Panathinaikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lamia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 1-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.42 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 0.95 / defence 0.79 against Lamia attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 28% | Lamia 26%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 59%, Lamia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.