Panathinaikos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Panathinaikos. A 0.60 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Panathinaikos lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Panathinaikos 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 37%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panathinaikos 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.33 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.082 / defence 0.829 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.952 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.001. Data: 52 Panathinaikos games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.17 | Draw 2.78 | Aris Thessalonikis 5.26. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 20% | Aris Thessalonikis 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Panathinaikos 1.33 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.082 / def 0.829 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.952 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Aris Thessalonikis xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 46% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (1 meetings): Panathinaikos 1W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.08) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.95x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
46%
2.19
36%
2.80
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.12
0.79
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
5%
20.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.79 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 41W 15D 15L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 33W 13D 25L from 71 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.58 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.29 PPG from 35 outings (24W 8D 3L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 5D 17L from 35 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.31 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 41W 15D 15L in their last 71 games (1.94 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 33W 13D 25L in their last 71 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.29 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 26% (Panathinaikos) and 34% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Panathinaikos) and 43% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 34%; Aris Thessalonikis in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 34% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Championship Round - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.33 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.79 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.08 / defence 0.83 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 30%, Aris Thessalonikis 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.94 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.