Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Super League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Olympiakos Piraeus 60% and Volos NFC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Volos NFC 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG and Volos NFC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.935 / defence 0.873 | Volos NFC attack 1.150 / defence 1.569. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.304. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.569 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 10 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 30%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Volos NFC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Volos NFC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 / Volos NFC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.935 / def 0.873 | Volos NFC attack 1.150 / def 1.569 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Volos NFC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 43% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.92
1.31
Volos NFC xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.31 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 8W 2D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Volos NFC's attacking output running into Olympiakos Piraeus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Volos NFC in 80%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 games (2.60 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Volos NFC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.50 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, Volos NFC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Olympiakos Piraeus at 50%, Volos NFC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 75% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 100% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 75% of Volos NFC's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Volos NFC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Volos NFC 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG and Volos NFC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against Volos NFC attack 1.15 / defence 1.57, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 30%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 60%, Volos NFC 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.