Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host PAS Giannina at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. PAS Giannina haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while PAS Giannina have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 56% versus PAS Giannina 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | PAS Giannina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47 xG and PAS Giannina 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.092 / defence 0.916 | PAS Giannina attack 0.939 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.060. Data: 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 26 PAS Giannina games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 23%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | PAS Giannina 4.35. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | PAS Giannina 10% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47 / PAS Giannina 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.092 / def 0.916 | PAS Giannina attack 0.939 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.91
PAS Giannina xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 50% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
Record (4 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.09) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.78
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.38
0.91
PAS Giannina xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
5%
18.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.91 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 25W 8D 3L from 36 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 14L across 36 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. PAS Giannina haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 13W 4D 1L from 18 games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 4W 5D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.94 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; PAS Giannina in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Pre-Season
PAS Giannina
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 25W 8D 3L in their last 36 games (2.31 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAS Giannina away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.39 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, PAS Giannina 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 22% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 39%; PAS Giannina in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 17% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 22% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 39% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47 xG and PAS Giannina 0.91 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAS Giannina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against PAS Giannina attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 23%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, PAS Giannina 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.