Olympiakos Piraeus 3-2 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host PAS Giannina at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Championship Round - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0 for PAS Giannina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 7% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus PAS Giannina 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | PAS Giannina 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.45 xG and PAS Giannina 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.357 / defence 0.869 | PAS Giannina attack 0.675 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 26 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | Draw 27% | PAS Giannina 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | PAS Giannina 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — PAS Giannina's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | PAS Giannina 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | Draw 27% | PAS Giannina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 35% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.45 / PAS Giannina 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.357 / def 0.869 | PAS Giannina attack 0.675 / def 1.079 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.62
PAS Giannina xG
35%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 2 PAS Giannina.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 57% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
Record (3 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 2W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.36) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.71
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.06
0.62
PAS Giannina xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
4%
26.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.62 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 21W 7D 2L from 30 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 10L across 30 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 12W 2D 0L from 14 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 3W 5D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.00 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; PAS Giannina in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 7D 2L in their last 30 games (2.33 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAS Giannina away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.71 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
PAS Giannina tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS, PAS Giannina 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 7% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 43%; PAS Giannina in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 14% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 7% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out PAS Giannina 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAS Giannina 3-2 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.45 xG and PAS Giannina 0.62 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina outscored their 0.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.36 / defence 0.87 against PAS Giannina attack 0.68 / defence 1.08, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | Draw 27% | PAS Giannina 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 47%, PAS Giannina 23%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.