Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.70 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.40 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1 for Panathinaikos and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 44% versus Panathinaikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Panathinaikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.95 xG and Panathinaikos 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.232 / defence 0.706 | Panathinaikos attack 0.845 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.155. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 44 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 67% | Draw 21% | Panathinaikos 12%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Panathinaikos 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Panathinaikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 67% | Draw 21% | Panathinaikos 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.95 / Panathinaikos 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.232 / def 0.706 | Panathinaikos attack 0.845 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Panathinaikos xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 67% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Record (7 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 2W | Draws 4 | Panathinaikos 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.84x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.87
12%
8.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.63
0.69
Panathinaikos xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
8.10
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
2%
56.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.69 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 50 games, going 36W 10D 4L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.76 PPG from 50 outings (25W 13D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 20W 5D 0L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.38 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 36W 10D 4L in their last 50 games (2.36 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panathinaikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.60 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
2
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, Panathinaikos 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 48% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 52% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 48% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panathinaikos defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.95 xG and Panathinaikos 0.69 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.23 / defence 0.71 against Panathinaikos attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 67% | Draw 21% | Panathinaikos 12%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Panathinaikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 46%, Panathinaikos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.76. Form was overturned, with Panathinaikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.