Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Olympiakos Piraeus face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 3). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.80 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2024, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 Aris Thessalonikis — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 45% versus Aris Thessalonikis 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.331 / defence 0.818 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.902 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.331 — their 1.64 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Aris Thessalonikis bring a tight defence (rating 0.754, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 52.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.00 | Draw 3.44 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.78. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 80% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.331 / def 0.818 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.902 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 50% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.33x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.90x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.44
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.64
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
4%
24.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.00 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 39W 14D 11L from 64 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 23L across 64 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 22W 5D 5L from their last 32 home games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 9W 7D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 14D 11L in their last 64 games (2.05 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 29W 12D 23L in their last 64 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.22 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 14 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 4-1 Aris Thessalonikis on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 December 2025: Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 41% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 34% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 69% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.33 / defence 0.82 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.90 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.55. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.