Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AEK Athens FC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 40% versus AEK Athens FC 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | AEK Athens FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.06 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.368 / defence 0.956 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.160. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 42 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | AEK Athens FC 4.55. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | AEK Athens FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.06 / AEK Athens FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.368 / def 0.956 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.155 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.28
AEK Athens FC xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 7 January 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 54% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.37x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.16x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.29
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.34
1.28
AEK Athens FC xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
3%
35.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.28 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 52 games, going 31W 14D 7L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.27 PPG from 52 outings (36W 10D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.06 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.27 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 18W 5D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 2.08 points per game from 26 outings (16W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.90 scored and 0.58 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 31W 14D 7L in their last 52 games (2.06 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 36W 10D 6L in their last 52 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.27 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 46%, AEK Athens FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 50% (AEK Athens FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 42% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 50% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AEK Athens FC defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-2 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.06 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.28 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.37 / defence 0.96 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 22%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a AEK Athens FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, AEK Athens FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.06 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.