Olympiakos Piraeus 1-3 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus AEK Athens FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | AEK Athens FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.58 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.601 / defence 0.747 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.269 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.601 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 0.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | AEK Athens FC 5.26. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | AEK Athens FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.58 / AEK Athens FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.601 / def 0.747 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.269 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.95
AEK Athens FC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 3 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 49% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.60x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.27x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
49%
2.05
32%
3.09
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.53
0.95
AEK Athens FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
4%
25.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.95 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 66 games, going 43W 17D 6L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 1.89 PPG from 66 outings (38W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.21 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.89 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 23W 8D 2L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.79 points per game from 33 outings (17W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.70 scored and 0.86 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 43W 17D 6L in their last 66 games (2.21 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 38W 11D 17L in their last 66 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.33 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, AEK Athens FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 46% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 46% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 46% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-3 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.58 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AEK Athens FC outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.60 / defence 0.75 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 19%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a AEK Athens FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, AEK Athens FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.21 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.