OFI 1-2 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kifisia make the trip to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to face OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
OFI (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — OFI are significantly better at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis than their overall form suggests.
Kifisia have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia away from home this season: 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for OFI against 0.40 for Kifisia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — OFI lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OFI — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kifisia — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 45% versus Kifisia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 35% | Kifisia 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.77 xG and Kifisia 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.749 / defence 0.894 | Kifisia attack 0.610 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.281. OFI's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 OFI games / 20 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 13%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Kifisia 7.69. The model has a clear lean to OFI (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: OFI 50% | Kifisia 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG OFI 1.77 / Kifisia 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.749 / def 0.894 | Kifisia attack 0.610 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: OFI (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Kifisia xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Kifisia kick off?
OFI vs Kifisia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Kifisia?
OFI 1 - 2 Kifisia.
Where is OFI vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Kifisia part of?
OFI vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 62% chance of winning, Kifisia a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OFI and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Kifisia?
Record (1 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 1 | Kifisia 0W.
What form are OFI and Kifisia in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Kifisia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OFI's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Kifisia's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (0.61x) against OFI's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 46/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.04
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
OFI xG
Total xG
2.47
0.70
Kifisia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
2%
44.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are OFI and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for OFI and 0.70 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, OFI have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 8D 8L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kifisia's form line: 2W 6D 12L from 20 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kifisia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kifisia have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.00 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Kifisia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 2W 6D 12L in their last 20 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Kifisia away?
OFI's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.44 PPG; Kifisia away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kifisia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
OFI
3
Draws
2
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Kifisia?
From 5 meetings on record, OFI have won 0, Kifisia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Kifisia 2-2 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Kifisia?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 44%, Kifisia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (OFI) and 78% (Kifisia).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kifisia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Kifisia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of OFI's recent matches and 56% of Kifisia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of OFI's recent games and 78% of Kifisia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Kifisia tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.77 xG and Kifisia 0.70 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kifisia outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Kifisia attack 0.61 / defence 1.50, drawn from 46/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 62% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 13%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Kifisia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 35%, Kifisia 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Kifisia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Kifisia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kifisia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.