Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 1W 2D 1L at Stadio Levadias — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Stadio Levadias than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.88 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.854 / defence 1.139 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.145 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.075. Data: 11 Levadiakos games / 37 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 20% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.00 | Draw 2.86 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Levadiakos 75% | Olympiakos Piraeus 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 20% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Levadiakos 0.88 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.854 / def 1.139 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.145 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Levadiakos 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 20% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.85) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.15x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 11/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
20%
5.04
35%
2.87
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.28
1.40
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
5.04
20%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
5%
20.46
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.3 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.40 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 1W 4D 6L from 11 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 2L across 11 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.64 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 0.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.55 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.25 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Levadiakos, 75% for Olympiakos Piraeus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Levadiakos) and 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Levadiakos's games and 75% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Levadiakos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Levadiakos 0-1 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.88 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.40 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 11/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 20% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 36%, Olympiakos Piraeus 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.