Levadiakos 1-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Atromitos at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levadiakos face Atromitos.

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Fixture Analysis

Levadiakos welcome Atromitos to Stadio Levadias in Super League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Atromitos — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Atromitos have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 1.30 (Atromitos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Levadiakos have won 1, Atromitos 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2024, ended Levadiakos 1–2 Atromitos — a Atromitos win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Atromitos in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 58% versus Atromitos 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 46% | Atromitos 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Atromitos 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.937 / defence 1.117 | Atromitos attack 1.108 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.163. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 24 games and Atromitos's last 50.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 29% | Draw 26% | Atromitos 45%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.50 | Draw 3.80 | Atromitos 2.22. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 60% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 40% (last 10 away games).

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