Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis meet at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Asteras Tripolis in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus Asteras Tripolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 65% | Asteras Tripolis 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.57 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / defence 1.136 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.968 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 28 Levadiakos games / 28 Asteras Tripolis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 25%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Asteras Tripolis 4.00. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | Asteras Tripolis 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 29% | Asteras Tripolis 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Levadiakos 1.57 / Asteras Tripolis 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / def 1.136 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.968 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Asteras Tripolis xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 46% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 2W | Draws 4 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.89) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.97x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.45
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.66
1.10
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
5%
19.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.10 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 34 games, going 15W 7D 12L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.03 PPG from 34 outings (8W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 9W 3D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (2W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.00 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.88 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 56%, Asteras Tripolis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Levadiakos) and 44% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 31%; Asteras Tripolis in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Levadiakos's recent games and 44% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.