Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Levadiakos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, AEK Athens FC have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with AEK Athens FC winning.
It is worth noting that AEK Athens FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus AEK Athens FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 65% | AEK Athens FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.20 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.895 / defence 1.135 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.083 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.998. Data: 28 Levadiakos games / 28 AEK Athens FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 34% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | AEK Athens FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | AEK Athens FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 34% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Levadiakos 1.20 / AEK Athens FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.895 / def 1.135 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.083 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 34% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | AEK Athens FC 5W.
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.90x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.08x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
34%
2.99
32%
3.17
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.42
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
2.99
34%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.23 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 15W 7D 12L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 22W 10D 2L from 34 games, 2.24 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.94 PPG from 17 outings (10W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 8D 1L from 17 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.91 scored and 0.62 conceded. Levadiakos's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 22W 10D 2L in their last 34 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.94 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
5
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 59%, AEK Athens FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Levadiakos) and 35% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 47% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Levadiakos's recent games and 35% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.