Lamia 1-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamia at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamia face Volos NFC.

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Full Analysis

Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Volos NFC in Super League 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Lamia have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Lamia's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Volos NFC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Lamia, 1.00 for Volos NFC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Volos NFC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Lamia 2–2 Volos NFC — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Volos NFC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 44% versus Volos NFC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 46% | Volos NFC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.68 xG and Volos NFC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 1.017 / defence 1.191 | Volos NFC attack 0.827 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.104. Data: built from Lamia's last 39 games and Volos NFC's last 39.

Result probabilities: Lamia 50% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 23%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.01 | Draw 3.64 | Volos NFC 4.37. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and Volos NFC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 60% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 50% (last 10 away games).

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