Lamia 1-1 Veria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veria at 43%, yet in-form Lamia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamia vs Veria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round as Lamia welcome Veria to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 June 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veria stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Super League 1 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Veria have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lamia have won 1, Veria 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Lamia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.96 xG and Veria 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.854 / defence 1.393 | Veria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.051. Data: 26 Lamia games / 0 Veria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 29% | Draw 29% | Veria 43%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Veria 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veria at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamia (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Veria | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jun 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 29% | Draw 29% | Veria 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamia 0.96 / Veria 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.854 / def 1.393 | Veria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Veria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Veria xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Veria kick off?
Lamia vs Veria kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 June 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Veria?
Lamia 1 - 1 Veria.
Where is Lamia vs Veria being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Veria part of?
Lamia vs Veria is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Veria?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 29% chance of winning, Veria a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Veria?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamia and Veria will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Veria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Veria?
Record (1 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 0 | Veria 0W.
What form are Lamia and Veria in?
Lamia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Veria (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.85x the league average against Veria's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Veria's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veria Win
29%
3.50
29%
3.47
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.21
1.24
Veria xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Veria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and Veria expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Lamia and 1.24 for Veria, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Veria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Lamia have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Veria's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Veria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lamia are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veria.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Veria are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Veria in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Veria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Veria in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Veria have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Veria runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
0
Veria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Veria?
From 2 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Veria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Veria last play each other?
They last met on 18 June 2022, when Lamia 1-1 Veria.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Veria?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Veria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Veria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lamia's games and 100% of Veria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs Veria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lamia's matches and 100% of Veria's.
Do Lamia and Veria tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Veria in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and Veria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and Veria finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.96 xG and Veria 1.24 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.85 / defence 1.39 against Veria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 29% | Draw 29% | Veria 43%, with Veria to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 100%, Veria 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Lamia arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lamia managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Veria conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.