Lamia 0-3 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Atromitos in Super League 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 12 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Lamia (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Lamia have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Atromitos's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Atromitos have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Atromitos are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lamia, 3 for Atromitos and 5 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Lamia 2–4 Atromitos — a Atromitos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lamia — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Atromitos — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 58% versus Atromitos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 60% | Atromitos 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lamia surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Atromitos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.97 xG and Atromitos 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.688 / defence 0.995 | Atromitos attack 1.030 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.183. Lamia's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Lamia's last 43 games and Atromitos's last 43.
Result probabilities: Lamia 29% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 42%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.41 | Draw 3.45 | Atromitos 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lamia 50% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 12 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 29% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Lamia 0.97 / Atromitos 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.688 / def 0.995 | Atromitos attack 1.030 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Atromitos xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Atromitos kick off?
Lamia vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Lamia 0 - 3 Atromitos.
Where is Lamia vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Atromitos part of?
Lamia vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 18) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 29% chance of winning, Atromitos a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lamia and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Lamia vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lamia's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (1.03x) against Lamia's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 43 games and Atromitos's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.45
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.18
1.21
Atromitos xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.7 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lamia and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lamia and 1.21 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamia's recent record stands at 9W 13D 28L from 50 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 12W 17D 21L across 50 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Lamia against 1.06 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 5W 5D 14L from their last 24 home games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 5W 8D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.12 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Lamia (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Lamia vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 13D 28L in their last 50 games (0.80 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 12W 17D 21L in their last 50 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.83 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lamia and Atromitos, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won Lamia 0-3 Atromitos on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 4D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 1, Atromitos have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2025: Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 54%, Atromitos 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lamia) and 58% (Atromitos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 38% of games; Atromitos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Atromitos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lamia's games and 58% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamia and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lamia's matches and 58% of Atromitos's.
Do Lamia and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Lamia's recent matches and 88% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Lamia 0-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.97 xG and Atromitos 1.21 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.69 / defence 0.99 against Atromitos attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 29% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 42%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 60%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.80 PPG, Atromitos 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.