Ionikos 2-2 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ionikos at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ionikos vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Ionikos welcome PAS Giannina to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Ionikos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ionikos have posted 3W 4D 3L at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ionikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ionikos at 0.80 PPG versus PAS Giannina's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ionikos have won 0, PAS Giannina 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with PAS Giannina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ionikos trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
PAS Giannina trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 56% versus PAS Giannina 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 51% | PAS Giannina 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.33 xG and PAS Giannina 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.879 / defence 1.233 | PAS Giannina attack 0.768 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.099. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Ionikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Ionikos games / 34 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 41% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 27%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | PAS Giannina 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ionikos at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ionikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Ionikos 60% | PAS Giannina 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 41% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Ionikos 1.33 / PAS Giannina 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.879 / def 1.233 | PAS Giannina attack 0.768 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.04
PAS Giannina xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Ionikos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Ionikos 2 - 2 PAS Giannina.
Where is Ionikos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Ionikos vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 41% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ionikos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and PAS Giannina?
Record (2 meetings): Ionikos 0W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 1W.
What form are Ionikos and PAS Giannina in?
Ionikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ionikos's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.06
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.37
1.04
PAS Giannina xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ionikos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.04 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ionikos come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 11D 18L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.07 PPG from 41 outings (11W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ionikos on 1.15 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ionikos's home form reads 6W 7D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 0.63 points per game from 19 outings (3W 3D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAS Giannina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ionikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ionikos are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.95 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Ionikos's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.32 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ionikos and PAS Giannina runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ionikos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ionikos
3
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and PAS Giannina?
From 5 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 0, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Ionikos 0-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and PAS Giannina?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 58%, PAS Giannina 16% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ionikos) and 32% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 32% of games; PAS Giannina in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ionikos's recent matches and 16% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ionikos's recent games and 32% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos and PAS Giannina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 9, as Ionikos and PAS Giannina drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.33 xG and PAS Giannina 1.04 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAS Giannina outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.23 against PAS Giannina attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 41% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 27%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 51%, PAS Giannina 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.15 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.