Asteras Tripolis 1-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAS Giannina have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Asteras Tripolis) versus 1.20 (PAS Giannina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 1 for PAS Giannina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with PAS Giannina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 31% versus PAS Giannina 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 29% | PAS Giannina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.30 xG and PAS Giannina 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.958 / defence 0.714 | PAS Giannina attack 0.913 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.033. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Asteras Tripolis games / 48 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 48% | Draw 36% | PAS Giannina 16%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.08 | Draw 2.78 | PAS Giannina 6.25. Asteras Tripolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 20% | PAS Giannina 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 48% | Draw 36% | PAS Giannina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.30 / PAS Giannina 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.958 / def 0.714 | PAS Giannina attack 0.913 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.67
PAS Giannina xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 48% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 16% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina?
Record (3 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 1W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 1W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.96x the league average against PAS Giannina's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
48%
2.08
36%
2.76
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.98
0.67
PAS Giannina xG
2.08
48%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.67 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 19D 21L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.09 PPG from 55 outings (14W 18D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.16 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 11W 9D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 0.74 points per game from 27 outings (4W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.98 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 19D 21L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 14W 18D 23L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or PAS Giannina away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.56 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
3
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Asteras Tripolis 26% BTTS, PAS Giannina 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Asteras Tripolis and 33% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 41% of games; PAS Giannina in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 33% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 33% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.30 xG and PAS Giannina 0.67 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.96 / defence 0.71 against PAS Giannina attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 48% | Draw 36% | PAS Giannina 16%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 29%, PAS Giannina 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.16 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.