Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Conference League Group - 2 sees Volos NFC travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 1W 8D 1L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 PPG, Volos NFC 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Aris Thessalonikis have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Aris Thessalonikis a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games).
Volos NFC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus Volos NFC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Volos NFC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 xG and Volos NFC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.697 / defence 0.908 | Volos NFC attack 0.803 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 24%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Volos NFC 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Volos NFC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 2 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 / Volos NFC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.697 / def 0.908 | Volos NFC attack 0.803 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Volos NFC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is a Conference League Group - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 40% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Record (8 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 5W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.70) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
40%
2.49
36%
2.78
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.85
0.78
Volos NFC xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.78 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 22W 21D 16L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 19W 11D 29L from 59 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.47 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (13W 12D 4L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 10W 2D 17L from 29 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.03 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 21D 16L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 19W 11D 29L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Volos NFC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.76 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Volos NFC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 41%, Volos NFC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 55% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 34% of games; Volos NFC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 45% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 55% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Volos NFC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 3-2 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Conference League Group - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 xG and Volos NFC 0.78 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.70 / defence 0.91 against Volos NFC attack 0.80 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 24%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 30%, Volos NFC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.47 PPG, Volos NFC 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.