Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aris Thessalonikis face Panetolikos.

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Analysis

Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Panetolikos have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Panetolikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Panetolikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for Panetolikos and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–2 Panetolikos — a Panetolikos win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus Panetolikos 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 41% | Panetolikos 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 xG and Panetolikos 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.983 / defence 0.729 | Panetolikos attack 0.737 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.157. Panetolikos bring a tight defence (rating 0.766, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. Panetolikos's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Aris Thessalonikis have a tight defence (rating 0.729), which is pulling Panetolikos's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 49 games and Panetolikos's last 49.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 23%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.40 | Draw 2.85 | Panetolikos 4.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS Yes probability 28% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Panetolikos's lower xG of 0.62 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 79% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 30% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 30% (last 10 away games).

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