Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos meet at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.60 for Panathinaikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Panathinaikos 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Panathinaikos 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.14 xG and Panathinaikos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.973 / defence 0.964 | Panathinaikos attack 0.959 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 26 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 31%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Panathinaikos 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Panathinaikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.14 / Panathinaikos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.973 / def 0.964 | Panathinaikos attack 0.959 / def 1.183 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Panathinaikos xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 39% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.96x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.33
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.11
0.97
Panathinaikos xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.97 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 13W 6D 8L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos's form line: 13W 4D 10L from 27 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.59 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 4W 1D 8L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.56 scored and 0.81 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Panathinaikos in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 6D 8L in their last 27 games (1.67 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 13W 4D 10L in their last 27 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panathinaikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.92 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 38% (Panathinaikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 46% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 31%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 46% of games; Panathinaikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 38% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 46% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.14 xG and Panathinaikos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Panathinaikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 31%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Panathinaikos 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.