Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 36%, yet in-form Panathinaikos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos meet at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panathinaikos are 1.00 PPG clear of Aris Thessalonikis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Panathinaikos in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.86 xG and Panathinaikos 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.805 / defence 1.019 | Panathinaikos attack 0.714 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 0.975. Data: 2 Aris Thessalonikis games / 2 Panathinaikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 28%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Panathinaikos 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Panathinaikos's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.57 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.86 / Panathinaikos 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.805 / def 1.019 | Panathinaikos attack 0.714 / def 1.147 | league avg home 0.928 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Panathinaikos xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 36% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.71x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
36%
2.75
36%
2.81
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.57
0.71
Panathinaikos xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.42
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.9 | 14.8 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.71 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Panathinaikos's attacking output running into Aris Thessalonikis's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Panathinaikos in 0%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Panathinaikos in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 0% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 50% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panathinaikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panathinaikos 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.86 xG and Panathinaikos 0.71 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Panathinaikos attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 28%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 0%, Panathinaikos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Panathinaikos managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.