Aris Thessalonikis 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Aris Thessalonikis take on Panathinaikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos meet at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 5 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panathinaikos are 0.50 PPG clear of Aris Thessalonikis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Panathinaikos 28%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Panathinaikos 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 xG and Panathinaikos 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.373 / defence 0.909 | Panathinaikos attack 1.129 / defence 0.623. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.998. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 1.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos's defence strength of 0.623 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 32% | Draw 38% | Panathinaikos 30%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Panathinaikos 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Panathinaikos 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 32% | Draw 38% | Panathinaikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 / Panathinaikos 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.373 / def 0.909 | Panathinaikos attack 1.129 / def 0.623 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Panathinaikos xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 5 April 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 32% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.13x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
38%
2.62
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.09
1.02
Panathinaikos xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.02 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 30W 13D 21L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Panathinaikos's form line: 37W 13D 14L from 64 games, 1.94 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.94 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.94 PPG from 32 outings (18W 8D 6L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 14W 7D 11L from 32 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.41 scored and 0.59 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos in 28%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Panathinaikos in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
Panathinaikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 30W 13D 21L in their last 64 games (1.61 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 37W 13D 14L in their last 64 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panathinaikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.94 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 34% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 31% (Panathinaikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 31% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 47%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 34% of games; Panathinaikos in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 31% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 31% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Panathinaikos defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 xG and Panathinaikos 1.02 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.37 / defence 0.91 against Panathinaikos attack 1.13 / defence 0.62, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 32% | Draw 38% | Panathinaikos 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 44%, Panathinaikos 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.61 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.