Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Aris Thessalonikis, 1.70 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 1W, Olympiakos Piraeus 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 57% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.024 / defence 0.817 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.985 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.287. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Aris Thessalonikis games / 44 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.024 / def 0.817 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.985 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 38% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (3 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.02) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (0.98x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.22
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.22
1.04
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.04 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 24W 9D 21L from 54 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 32W 14D 8L across 54 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 17W 4D 6L from 27 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 14W 9D 4L across 27 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.02 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 9D 21L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 32W 14D 8L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.04 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 56%, Olympiakos Piraeus 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 41% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 37% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.04 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.98 / defence 0.73, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.