Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees OFI travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 September 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 xG and OFI 0.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | OFI attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 0.340. Data: 0 Aris Thessalonikis games / 0 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 36% | OFI 13%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.92 | Draw 2.78 | OFI 7.69. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 19% | Total xG 1.36. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.36 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 81% — OFI's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 19%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 16% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 36% | OFI 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 19% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 / OFI 0.35 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | OFI attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.029 / away 0.340 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.35
OFI xG
19%
BTTS
39%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 52% chance of winning, OFI a 13% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 19% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.85x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 26.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (24.7%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
52%
1.94
36%
2.80
13%
7.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
25.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
25.8%
Draw
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.36
0.35
OFI xG
1.94
52%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
7.88
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
39%
Over 1.5
2.56
61%
Under 1.5
1.64
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
19%
BTTS Yes
5.34
81%
BTTS No
1.23
Clean Sheet
70%
1.42
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
5%
21.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.8 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 25.9 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.35 for OFI, a combined total of 1.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
OFI
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
1
Draws
5
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, OFI have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 1, as Aris Thessalonikis and OFI drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 xG and OFI 0.35 xG, a combined 1.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against OFI attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 36% | OFI 13%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 39% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 19% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.