Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 39%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Aris Thessalonikis's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 36% versus Asteras Tripolis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Asteras Tripolis 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.925 / defence 1.319 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.671 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.320. Data: 11 Aris Thessalonikis games / 11 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Asteras Tripolis 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 20% | Asteras Tripolis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 / Asteras Tripolis 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.925 / def 1.319 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.671 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Asteras Tripolis xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 30% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.93) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.67x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
30%
3.30
31%
3.23
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.17
1.17
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.17 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 6W 2D 3L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 3W 4D 4L from 11 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.09 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.60 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 20%, Asteras Tripolis 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Aris Thessalonikis and 20% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 40%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 60% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 20% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Asteras Tripolis 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.17 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.93 / defence 1.32 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.67 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 46%, Asteras Tripolis 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.