Apollon Smirnis 0-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Apollon Smirnis take on Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Apollon Smirnis welcome Atromitos to Stadio Georgios Kamaras in Super League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 28 February 2022 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atromitos stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Atromitos away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Apollon Smirnis 0.50 PPG, Atromitos 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Apollon Smirnis, 1 for Atromitos and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2021, ended Apollon Smirnis 1–4 Atromitos — a Atromitos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Apollon Smirnis in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 70% of games.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 26% versus Atromitos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 44% | Atromitos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.78 xG and Atromitos 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.463 / defence 1.222 | Atromitos attack 0.642 / defence 1.703. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.057. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.463 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Atromitos's defence rating of 1.703 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Apollon Smirnis's projected output up. Atromitos's attack rating of 0.642 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Data: built from Apollon Smirnis's last 24 games and Atromitos's last 23.
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 31% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 34%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 3.23 | Draw 2.84 | Atromitos 2.96. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.78 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 78% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Apollon Smirnis 10% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Monday 28 February 2022 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 31% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% (Under 78%) | BTTS Yes 30% (No 70%) | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.78 / Atromitos 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.463 / def 1.222 | Atromitos attack 0.642 / def 1.703 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Atromitos xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 28 February 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 2 Atromitos.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 31% chance of winning, Atromitos a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (70%).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (78%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.46x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Apollon Smirnis's last 24 games and Atromitos's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
35%
2.84
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.61
0.83
Atromitos xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.28
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 16.6 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.83 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Apollon Smirnis have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 2W 7D 14L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Atromitos's form line: 4W 5D 14L from 23 games, 0.74 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Apollon Smirnis on 0.57 PPG, Atromitos on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Apollon Smirnis have posted 0.75 PPG from their last 12 home games (1W 6D 5L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 9L from their last 12 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Apollon Smirnis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.39 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.00 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 2W 7D 14L in their last 23 games (0.57 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 4W 5D 14L in their last 23 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or Atromitos away?
Apollon Smirnis's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 0.75 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Atromitos in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 19 March 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Atromitos have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Dec 2021, when Atromitos won Atromitos 4-1 Apollon Smirnis.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
0
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Atromitos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2022: Atromitos 1-0 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Apollon Smirnis 17% BTTS, Atromitos 42%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Apollon Smirnis) and 58% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 75% of games; Atromitos in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 42% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 58% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 42% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 75% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Apollon Smirnis 0-2 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.78 xG and Atromitos 0.83 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.46 / defence 1.22 against Atromitos attack 0.64 / defence 1.70, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 31% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Atromitos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 44%, Atromitos 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Apollon Smirnis 0.57 PPG, Atromitos 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.