AEK Athens FC 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as AEK Athens FC welcome PAS Giannina to Stadio Georgios Kamaras. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, AEK Athens FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAS Giannina away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AEK Athens FC: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for PAS Giannina, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 3–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AEK Athens FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 37% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 53% versus PAS Giannina 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 58% | PAS Giannina 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.11 xG and PAS Giannina 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 0.908 / defence 1.012 | PAS Giannina attack 0.855 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 0.916. Data: 28 AEK Athens FC games / 28 PAS Giannina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 42% | Draw 32% | PAS Giannina 25%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | PAS Giannina 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 40% | PAS Giannina 10% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 42% | Draw 32% | PAS Giannina 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.11 / PAS Giannina 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 0.908 / def 1.012 | PAS Giannina attack 0.855 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.193 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
PAS Giannina xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
AEK Athens FC 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 42% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
Record (4 meetings): AEK Athens FC 4W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (0.91) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
42%
2.35
32%
3.11
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
1.91
0.79
PAS Giannina xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.79 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 17W 8D 13L from 38 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 15L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: AEK Athens FC on 1.55 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 9W 2D 8L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 4W 5D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.92 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: PAS Giannina in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
PAS Giannina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAS Giannina away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.53 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.89 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
0
Draws
1
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, PAS Giannina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2024, when AEK Athens FC 4-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 37% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AEK Athens FC 47% BTTS, PAS Giannina 16%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (AEK Athens FC) and 21% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 37%; PAS Giannina in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 16% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 21% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 37% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.11 xG and PAS Giannina 0.79 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against PAS Giannina attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 42% | Draw 32% | PAS Giannina 25%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 58%, PAS Giannina 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.55 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.